Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics (preprint)

The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of 'local' when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 distribution and microbial succession in a clinical microbiology testing facility during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (preprint)

Background The exchange of microbes between humans and the built environment is a bidirectional and dynamic process that has significant impact on health. Most studies exploring the microbiome of the built environment have been predicated on improving our understanding of pathogen emergence, persistence, and transmission. Previous studies have demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 presence significantly correlates with the proportional abundance of specific bacteria on surfaces in the built environment. However, in these studies, SARS-CoV-2 originated from infected patients. Here we perform a similar assessment for a clinical microbiology lab while staff were handling SARS-CoV-2 infected swab samples for RT-qPCR analysis. The goal of this study was to understand the distribution and dynamics of microbial population on various surfaces within different sections of a clinical microbiology lab during a short period of 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.Results We sampled floors, benches and sinks in three sections of an active clinical microbiology lab (bacteriology, molecular microbiology, and COVID) over a 3-month period. Although floor samples harbored SARS-CoV-2, it was rarely identified on other surfaces, and bacterial diversity was significantly greater in floor samples than sinks and benches. The floor-associated microbiota comprised greater proportions of bacteria commonly associated with natural environments (e.g., soils), and benchtops harbored a greater proportion of human-associated microbes, including Staphylococcus and Streptococcus, which may have originated from either laboratory staff or clinical samples. Finally, we show that the microbial composition of these surfaces did not change over time and remained stable.Conclusion Despite of finding viruses on the floors, no lab-acquired infections were reported during the study period, which suggests that lab safety protocols and sanitation practices were sufficient to prevent pathogen exposures. Like other BEs and health care facilities the most common bacteria colonizing the surfaces in a clinical microbiology lab primarily consist of bacterial taxa of environmental and human origin. Although our analysis here does not identify the source of infection in any given case, it does help to elucidate microbes that colonize these surfaces and have the potential to cause LAIs.

Bacterial metatranscriptomes in wastewater can differentiate virally infected human populations (preprint)

Monitoring wastewater samples at building-level resolution screens large populations for SARS-CoV-2, prioritizing testing and isolation efforts. Here we perform untargeted metatranscriptomics on virally-enriched wastewater samples from 10 locations on the UC San Diego campus, demonstrating that resulting bacterial taxonomic and functional profiles discriminate SARS-CoV-2 status even without direct detection of viral transcripts. Our proof-of-principle reveals emergent threats through changes in the human microbiome, suggesting new approaches for untargeted wastewater-based epidemiology.

Sentinel Cards Provide Practical SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring in School Settings (preprint)

Accurate, high-resolution environmental monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 traces indoors through sentinel cards is a promising approach to help students safely return to in-person learning. Because SARS-CoV-2 RNA can persist for up to a week on several indoor surface types, there is a need for increased temporal resolution to determine whether consecutive surface positives arise from new infection events or continue to report past events. Cleaning sentinel cards after sampling would provide the needed resolution, but might interfere with assay performance. We tested the effect of three cleaning solutions (BZK wipes, wet wipes, RNase Away) at three different viral loads: "high" (4 x 104 GE/mL), "medium" (1 x 104 GE/mL), and "low" (2.5 x 103 GE/mL). RNAse Away, chosen as a positive control, was the most effective cleaning solution on all three viral loads. Wet wipes were found to be more effective than BZK wipes in the medium viral load condition. The low viral load condition was easily reset with all three cleaning solutions. These findings will enable temporal SARS-CoV-2 monitoring in indoor environments where transmission risk of the virus is high and the need to avoid individual-level sampling for privacy or compliance reasons exists.

Wastewater sequencing uncovers early, cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission (preprint)

As SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic pathogen, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 Distribution in Residential Housing Suggests Contact Deposition and Correlates with Rothia (preprint)

Monitoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on surfaces is emerging as an important tool for identifying past exposure to individuals shedding viral RNA. Our past work has demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) signals from surfaces can identify when infected individuals have touched surfaces such as Halloween candy, and when they have been present in hospital rooms or schools. However, the sensitivity and specificity of surface sampling as a method for detecting the presence of a SARS-CoV-2 positive individual, as well as guidance about where to sample, has not been established. To address these questions, and to test whether our past observations linking SARS-CoV-2 abundance to Rothia spp. in hospitals also hold in a residential setting, we performed detailed spatial sampling of three isolation housing units, assessing each sample for SARS-CoV-2 abundance by RT-qPCR, linking the results to 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequences to assess the bacterial community at each location and to the Cq value of the contemporaneous clinical test. Our results show that the highest SARS-CoV-2 load in this setting is on touched surfaces such as light switches and faucets, but detectable signal is present in many non-touched surfaces that may be more relevant in settings such as schools where mask wearing is enforced. As in past studies, the bacterial community predicts which samples are positive for SARS-CoV-2, with Rothia sp. showing a positive association. ImportanceSurface sampling for detecting SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is increasingly being used to locate infected individuals. We tested which indoor surfaces had high versus low viral loads by collecting 381 samples from three residential units where infected individuals resided, and interpreted the results in terms of whether SARS-CoV-2 was likely transmitted directly (e.g. touching a light switch) or indirectly (e.g. by droplets or aerosols settling). We found highest loads where the subject touched the surface directly, although enough virus was detected on indirectly contacted surfaces to make such locations useful for sampling (e.g. in schools, where students do not touch the light switches and also wear masks so they have no opportunity to touch their face and then the object). We also documented links between the bacteria present in a sample and the SARS-CoV-2 virus, consistent with earlier studies.

Wastewater and surface monitoring to detect COVID-19 in elementary school settings: The Safer at School Early Alert project (preprint)

Schools are high-risk settings for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but necessary for children's educational and social-emotional wellbeing. While wastewater monitoring has been implemented to mitigate outbreak risk in universities and residential settings, its effectiveness in community K-12 sites is unknown. We implemented a wastewater and surface monitoring system to detect SARS-CoV-2 in nine elementary schools in San Diego County. Ninety-three percent of identified cases were associated with either a positive wastewater or surface sample; 67% were associated with a positive wastewater sample, and 40% were associated with a positive surface sample. The techniques we utilized allowed for near-complete genomic sequencing of wastewater and surface samples. Passive environmental surveillance can complement approaches that require individual consent, particularly in communities with limited access and/or high rates of testing hesitancy.

Context-aware deconvolution of cell-cell communication with Tensor-cell2cell (preprint)

Cell interactions determine phenotypes, and intercellular communication is shaped by cellular contexts such as disease state, organismal life stage, and tissue microenvironment. Single-cell technologies measure the molecules mediating cell-cell communication, and emerging computational tools can exploit these data to decipher intercellular communication. However, current methods either disregard cellular context or rely on simple pairwise comparisons between samples, thus limiting the ability to decipher complex cell-cell communication across multiple time points, levels of disease severity, or spatial contexts. Here we present Tensor-cell2cell, an unsupervised method using tensor decomposition, which is the first strategy to decipher context-driven intercellular communication by simultaneously accounting for multiple stages, states, or locations of the cells. To do so, Tensor-cell2cell uncovers context-driven patterns of communication associated with different phenotypic states and determined by unique combinations of cell types and ligand-receptor pairs. As such, Tensor-cell2cell robustly improves upon and extends the analytical capabilities of existing tools. We show Tensor-cell2cell can identify multiple modules associated with distinct communication processes (e.g., participating cell-cell and ligand receptor pairs) linked to COVID-19 severities and Autism Spectrum Disorder. Thus, we introduce an effective and easy-to-use strategy for understanding complex communication patterns across diverse conditions.

Comparison of heat-inactivated and infectious SARS-CoV-2 across indoor surface materials shows comparable RT-qPCR viral signal intensity and persistence (preprint)

Environmental monitoring in public spaces can be used to identify surfaces contaminated by persons with COVID-19 and inform appropriate infection mitigation responses. Research groups have reported detection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on surfaces days or weeks after the virus has been deposited, making it difficult to estimate when an infected individual may have shed virus onto a SARS-CoV-2 positive surface, which in turn complicates the process of establishing effective quarantine measures. In this study, we determined that reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) detection of viral RNA from heat-inactivated particles experiences minimal decay over seven days of monitoring on eight out of nine surfaces tested. The properties of the studied surfaces result in RT-qPCR signatures that can be segregated into two material categories, rough and smooth, where smooth surfaces have a lower limit of detection. RT-qPCR signal intensity (average quantification cycle (Cq) can be correlated to surface viral load using only one linear regression model per material category. The same experiment was performed with infectious viral particles on one surface from each category, with essentially identical results. The stability of RT-qPCR viral signal demonstrates the need to clean monitored surfaces after sampling to establish temporal resolution. Additionally, these findings can be used to minimize the number of materials and timepoints tested and allow for the use of heat-inactivated viral particles when optimizing environmental monitoring methods.

Automated, miniaturized, and scalable screening of healthcare workers, first responders, and students for SARS-CoV-2 in San Diego County (preprint)

Background: Successful containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2, the causative virus of the COVID-19 pandemic, have involved widespread population testing that identifies infections early and enables rapid contact tracing. In this study, we developed a rapid and inexpensive RT-qPCR testing pipeline for population-level SARS-CoV-2 detection, and used this pipeline to establish a clinical laboratory dedicated to COVID-19 testing at the University of California San Diego (UCSD) with a processing capacity of 6,000 samples per day and next-day result turnaround times. Methods and findings: Using this pipeline, we screened 6,786 healthcare workers and first responders, and 21,220 students, faculty, and staff from UCSD. Additionally, we screened 6,031 preschool-grade 12 students and staff from public and private schools across San Diego County that remained fully or partially open for in-person teaching during the pandemic. Between April 17, 2020 and February 5, 2021, participants provided 161,582 nasal swabs that were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 752 positive tests were obtained, yielding a test positivity rate of 0.47%. While the presence of symptoms was significantly correlated with higher viral load, most of the COVID-19 positive participants who participated in symptom surveys were asymptomatic at the time of testing. The positivity rate among preschool-grade 12 schools that remained open for in-person teaching was similar to the positivity rate at UCSD and lower than that of San Diego County, with the children in private schools being less likely to test positive than the adults at these schools. Conclusions: Most schools across the United States have been closed for in-person learning for much of the 2020-2021 school year, and their safe reopening is a national priority. However, as there are no vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 currently available to the majority of school-aged children, the traditional strategies of mandatory masking, physical distancing, and repeated viral testing of students and staff remain key components of risk mitigation in these settings. The data presented here suggest that the safety measures and repeated testing actions taken by participating healthcare and educational facilities were effective in preventing outbreaks, and that a similar combination of risk-mitigation strategies and repeated testing may be successfully adopted by other healthcare and educational systems.

Rapid, large-scale wastewater surveillance and automated reporting system enabled early detection of nearly 85% of COVID-19 cases on a University campus (preprint)

ABSTRACT Wastewater based surveillance has gained prominence and come to the forefront as a leading indicator of forecasting COVID-19 infection dynamics owing to its cost-effectiveness and its ability to inform early public health interventions. A university campus could especially benefit from wastewater surveillance as they are characterized by largely asymptomatic populations and are potential hotspots for transmission that necessitate frequent diagnostic testing. In this study, we employed a large-scale GIS (Geographic information systems) enabled building-level wastewater monitoring system associated with the on-campus residences of 7614 individuals. Sixty-eight automated wastewater samplers were deployed to monitor 239 campus buildings with a focus on residential buildings. Time-weighted composite samples were collected on a daily basis and analyzed within the same day. Sample processing was streamlined significantly through automation, reducing the turnaround time by 20-fold and exceeding the scale of similar surveillance programs by 10 to 100-fold, thereby overcoming one of the biggest bottlenecks in wastewater surveillance. An automated wastewater notification system was developed to alert residents to a positive wastewater sample associated with their residence and to encourage uptake of campus-provided asymptomatic testing at no charge. This system, integrated with the rest of the “Return to Learn” program at UC San Diego-led to the early diagnosis of nearly 85% of all COVID-19 cases on campus. Covid-19 testing rates increased by 1.9-13X following wastewater notifications. Our study shows the potential for a robust, efficient wastewater surveillance system to greatly reduce infection risk as college campuses and other high-risk environments reopen. IMPORTANCE Wastewater based epidemiology can be particularly valuable at University campuses where high-resolution spatial sampling in a well-controlled context could not only provide insight into what affects campus community as well as how those inferences can be extended to a broader city/county context. In the present study, a large-scale wastewater surveillance was successfully implemented on a large university campus enabling early detection of 85% of COVID-19 cases thereby averting potential outbreaks. The highly automated sample processing to reporting system enabled dramatically reduced the turnaround time to 5h (sample to result time) for 96 samples. Furthermore, miniaturization of the sample processing pipeline brought down the processing cost significantly ($13/sample). Taken together, these results show that such a system could greatly ameliorate long-term surveillance on such communities as they look to reopen.

Unlocking capacities of viral genomics for the COVID-19 pandemic response (preprint)

More than any other infectious disease epidemic, the COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by the generation of large volumes of viral genomic data at an incredible pace due to recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies, the rapid global spread of SARS-CoV-2, and its persistent threat to public health. However, distinguishing the most epidemiologically relevant information encoded in these vast amounts of data requires substantial effort across the research and public health communities. Studies of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been critical in tracking the spread of variants and understanding its epidemic dynamics, and may prove crucial for controlling future epidemics and alleviating significant public health burdens. Together, genomic data and bioinformatics methods enable broad-scale investigations of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at the local, national, and global scales and allow researchers the ability to efficiently track the emergence of novel variants, reconstruct epidemic dynamics, and provide important insights into drug and vaccine development and disease control. Here, we discuss the tremendous opportunities that genomics offers to unlock the effective use of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data for efficient public health surveillance and guiding timely responses to COVID-19.

Alternative swabs and storage for SARS-CoV-2 detection in a hospital environment (preprint)

Since its appearance in late 2019, COVID-19 has caused well over one million deaths worldwide. Large-scale testing and contact tracing remain critical for controlling viral spread. Complying with the US CDC and WHO protocols for sample collection requires a ready supply of inexpensive swabs and collection reagents. Unfortunately, CDC-approved clinical-grade sampling supplies are expensive, and additionally, current methods prevent further analysis of the microbiome due to the presence of antibiotics in viral transport media. Researchers sought out new testing supplies in a recent study comparing five consumer-grade swabs and one clinical-grade swab. They found that using 95% ethanol instead of viral transfer media reduced RNase activity, preserving samples for microbiome analysis, and extracting directly from the swab head instead of the surrounding liquid resulted in 2-4x higher RNA recovery than the clinical standard. The limit of detection was similar for samples collected with consumer-grade or research-grade plastic swabs compared to the CDC-approved synthetic swab, and microbiome analysis demonstrated that microbial communities were not impacted by swab type. These results suggest that improved SARS-CoV-2 detection may be possible using a less expensive technique that also preserves material for microbiome analysis.

Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States (preprint)

The emergence of the early COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected, due to a lack of adequate testing and mitigation efforts. The city of New Orleans, Louisiana experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with the annual Mardi Gras festival, which went ahead without precautions. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large, crowded events may have accelerated early transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana initially had limited sequence diversity compared to other U.S. states, and that one successful introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras and that the festival dramatically accelerated transmission, eventually leading to secondary localized COVID-19 epidemics throughout the Southern U.S.. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate COVID-19 epidemics on a local and regional scale.

Genomic epidemiology identifies emergence and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 in the United States (preprint)

As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Feasibility of using alternative swabs and storage solutions for paired SARS-CoV-2 detection and microbiome analysis in the hospital environment (preprint)

Background: Determining the role of fomites in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is essential in the hospital setting and will likely be important outside of medical facilities as governments around the world make plans to ease COVID-19 public health restrictions and attempt to safely reopen economies. Expanding COVID-19 testing to include environmental surfaces would ideally be performed with inexpensive swabs that could be transported safely without concern of being a source of new infections. However, CDC-approved clinical-grade sampling supplies and techniques using a synthetic swab are expensive, potentially expose laboratory workers to viable virus and prohibit analysis of the microbiome due to the presence of antibiotics in viral transport media (VTM). To this end, we performed a series of experiments comparing the diagnostic yield using five consumer-grade swabs (including plastic and wood shafts and various head materials including cotton, synthetic, and foam) and one clinical grade swab for inhibition to RNA. For three of these swabs, we evaluated performance to detect SARS-CoV-2 in twenty intensive care unit (ICU) hospital rooms of patients including COVID-19+ patients. All swabs were placed in 95% ethanol and further evaluated in terms of RNase activity. SARS-CoV-2 was measured both directly from the swab and from the swab eluent. Results: Compared to samples collected in VTM, 95% ethanol demonstrated significant inhibition properties against RNases. When extracting directly from the swab head as opposed to the eluent, RNA recovery was approximately 2-4x higher from all six swab types tested as compared to the clinical standard of testing the eluent from a CDC-approved synthetic (SYN) swab. The limit of detection (LoD) of SARSSARS-CoV-2 from floor samples collected using the consumer-grade plastic (CGp) or research-grade plastic The Microsetta Initiative (TMI) swabs was similar or better than the SYN swab, further suggesting that swab type does not impact RNA recovery as measured by the abundance of SARSSARS-CoV-2. The LoD for TMI was between 0-362.5 viral particles while SYN and CGp were both between 725-1450 particles. Lastly microbiome analyses (16S rRNA gene sequencing) of paired samples (nasal and floor from same patient-room) collected using different swab types in triplicate indicated that microbial communities were not impacted by swab type, but instead driven by the patient and sample type. Conclusions: Compared to using a clinical-grade synthetic swab, detection of SARS-CoV-2 from environmental samples collected from ICU rooms of patients with COVID was similar using consumer grade swabs, stored in 95% ethanol. The yield was best from the swab head rather than the eluent and the low level of RNase activity and lack of antibiotics in these samples makes it possible to perform concomitant microbiome analyses.

Microbial context predicts SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in patients and the hospital built environment (preprint)

Synergistic effects of bacteria on viral stability and transmission are widely documented but remain unclear in the context of SARS-CoV-2. We collected 972 samples from hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), their health care providers, and hospital surfaces before, during, and after admission. We screened for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR, characterized microbial communities using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and contextualized the massive microbial diversity in this dataset through meta-analysis of over 20,000 samples. Sixteen percent of surfaces from COVID-19 patient rooms were positive, with the highest prevalence in floor samples next to patient beds (39%) and directly outside their rooms (29%). Although bed rail samples increasingly resembled the patient microbiome over time, SARS-CoV-2 was detected less there (11%). Despite viral surface contamination in almost all patient rooms, no health care workers contracted the disease, suggesting that personal protective equipment was effective in preventing transmissions. SARS-CoV-2 positive samples had higher bacterial phylogenetic diversity across human and surface samples, and higher biomass in floor samples. 16S microbial community profiles allowed for high SARS-CoV-2 classifier accuracy in not only nares, but also forehead, stool, and floor samples. Across distinct microbial profiles, a single amplicon sequence variant from the genus Rothia was highly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 across sample types and had higher prevalence in positive surface and human samples, even compared to samples from patients in another intensive care unit prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. These results suggest that bacterial communities may contribute to viral prevalence both in the host and hospital environment. One Sentence SummaryMicrobial classifier highlights specific taxa predictive of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence across diverse microbial niches in a COVID-19 hospital unit.

High throughput wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detection enables forecasting of community infection dynamics in San Diego county (preprint)

Large-scale wastewater surveillance has the ability to greatly augment the tracking of infection dynamics especially in communities where the prevalence rates far exceed the testing capacity. However, current methods for viral detection in wastewater are severely lacking in terms of scaling up for high throughput. In the present study, we employed an automated magnetic-bead based concentration approach for viral detection in sewage that can effectively be scaled up for processing 24 samples in a single 40-minute run. The method compared favorably to conventionally used methods for viral wastewater concentrations with higher recovery efficiencies from input sample volumes as low as 10ml and can enable the processing of over 100 wastewater samples in a day. The sensitivity of the high-throughput protocol was shown to detect cases as low as 2 in a hospital building with a known COVID-19 caseload. Using the high throughput pipeline, samples from the influent stream of the primary wastewater treatment plant of San Diego county (serving 2.3 million residents) were processed for a period of 13 weeks. Wastewater estimates of SARS-CoV-2 viral genome copies in raw untreated wastewater correlated strongly with clinically reported cases by the county, and when used alongside past reported case numbers and temporal information in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model enabled prediction of new reported cases up to 3 weeks in advance. Taken together, the results show that the high-throughput surveillance could greatly ameliorate comprehensive community prevalence assessments by providing robust, rapid estimates. ImportanceWastewater monitoring has a lot of potential for revealing COVID-19 outbreaks before they happen because the virus is found in the wastewater before people have clinical symptoms. However, application of wastewater-based surveillance has been limited by long processing times specifically at the concentration step. Here we introduce a much faster method of processing the samples, and show that its robustness by demonstrating direct comparisons with existing methods and showing that we can predict cases in San Diego by a week with excellent accuracy, and three weeks with fair accuracy, using city sewage. The automated viral concentration method will greatly alleviate the major bottleneck in wastewater processing by reducing the turnaround time during epidemics.

Analysis of the Dynamics and Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Mutations and its Possible Structural and Functional Implications (preprint)

After eight months of the pandemic declaration, COVID-19 has not been globally controlled. Several efforts to control SARS-CoV-2 dissemination are still running including vaccines and drug treatments. The effectiveness of these procedures depends, in part, that the regions to which these treatments are directed do not vary considerably. Although, it is known that the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 is relatively low it is necessary to monitor the adaptation and evolution of the virus in the different stages of the pandemic. Thus, identification, analysis of the dynamics, and possible functional and structural implication of mutations are relevant. Here, we first estimate the number of COVID-19 cases with a virus with a specific mutation and then calculate its global relative frequency (NRFp). Using this approach in a dataset of 100 924 genomes from GISAID, we identified 41 mutations to be present in viruses in an estimated number of 750 000 global COVID-19 cases (0.03 NRFp). We classified these mutations into three groups: high-frequent, low-frequent non-synonymous, and low-frequent synonymous. Analysis of the dynamics of these mutations by month and continent showed that high-frequent mutations appeared early in the pandemic, all are present in all continents and some of them are almost fixed in the global population. On the other hand, low-frequent mutations (non-synonymous and synonymous) appear late in the pandemic and seems to be at least partially continent-specific. This could be due to that high-frequent mutation appeared early when lockdown policies had not yet been applied and low-frequent mutations appeared after lockdown policies. Thus, preventing global dissemination of them. Finally, we present a brief structural and functional review of the analyzed ORFs and the possible implications of the 25 identified non-synonymous mutations.